Chapter 2.

Problem formulation and its decision.

Now when we have already given a comprehensive analysis of the phenomena with which we shall deal lets make some preliminary conclu-sions. What we have:
- Supposition that supernova star flashes have an impact on ethnogen-isis explosion.
- Dates of observations of flashes of supernova stars with possible in-accuracies some of them concerning years, months and days.
- Classification of stars, flashed, with possible errors at determination of their class.
- Periods within which ethnogenesis explosions took place indicated with possible inaccuracies as L. N. Gumilev referred to Skaligers chronology.

But what do we have on what we can rely without any doubts? More accurate? If there are any such information?
There is such information. We can refer to it:
- geographic location of axes of ethnogenesis explosions.
- presence of five different explosions of ethnogenisis, indicated by L. N. Gumilev for our era (A. D.).
- trajectories of Moons shadow at central Solar Eclipse.
- dates of Central Solar Eclipse.
It is dates accuracy of Central Solar Eclipse, accuracy of trajectory of Moons shadow and its coincidence with axes of explosions of ethnogen-isis that allow us to make an effort to specify the dates of supernova star flashes, their classification and to supplement the supposition on the con-nection of supernova stars with ethnogenisis by means of new facts. In other words we would like to show that there is a casual-and-consecutive relationship of the following kind: Supernova star Solar Eclipse initial mechanism of ethnogenisis ethnogenesis explosion

Problem settlement.

Considering a hypothesis of L. N. Gumilev on sudden origin of a source of passionary drive it is necessary to say that the model cosmic ray causes doubts for some reasons.
The first one: in our Solar System there are no objects of natural ori-gin with such an acute-oriented radiation (read: laser).
The second: Theoretically, radiation of far space (gravitation lenses) could appear in the form of stripes of such width and such kind but exclu-sively as a phenomenon of small degree of probability.
The third: Alien civilizations can act in a simpler way.
We suggest considering another model. Our model does not suggest presence of radiation ray. On the contrary, it suggest shielding of the most powerful radiation source for the whole Earth - Sun. Such phenomenon is observed quite regularly during Solar Eclipse.
If at this moment there is a supernova flashed star on the afternoon sky it becomes the main radiation source in the stripe of moving of the Moons shadow. It is in the stripe of Solar Eclipse that Ray Effect is cre-ated, about which Gumilev spoke.
At this time inculcation of supernova star radiation to the energetic structure of pre-ethnos, located in the stripe of Central Solar Eclipse, takes place as well as introduction of ethnogenesis mechanism.

A supernova star eradiates quite intensively in the visual frequency diapason within 1-2 years and during this time several Central Solar Eclipses are possible.
Supernova star radiation outside the stripe of Eclipse (day and night) evidently has also an impact on ethnoses, but this influence is general and has a background character almost similar for all ethnoses, and as a result there is no secretion of ethnogenesis explosion.
I suppose that supernova stars influence the starting mechanism not only by their radiation power but also by their unusual specter.
For a more detailed checking of the above-mentioned model it is nec-essary to examine the circumstances of Central Solar Eclipses for the pe-riod of 2000 years (since 300 B. C. till 1700 A. D.) and to correlate them with axes of passionary drive zones and dates of flashes of supernova stars.
But we shall do it in the second part of our investigation, and so far we shall execute somewhat simpler things.
Lets arrange the dates of the first observation of supernova star flashes from all the sources in chronological order as well as the periods of ethnogenesis explosions according to L. N. Gumilev for our era on one scale timing from 200 B. C. till 1300 A. D..
We shall not pay attention to supernova stars after the year of 1181 A. D., as L. N. Gumilev did not mark these explosions of ethnogenisis after 13 centure. Lets examine the following scheme and analyze it.

Scheme of chronological correspondence of the dates of the first observa-tion of supernova stars and ethnogenesis explosions.

"Ethnogenisis explosion or drive (mutation) is discovered in history not at once. Incubation period precedes it, which is usually not very long about 150 years.
"neighbors (neighboring ethnoses author.) may cause termination of the beginning process. (2, page 83).

Specifications to the scheme:
- is discovered by Gipparh in July 134 B. C. in the Scorpion constellation
- the Vifliemskaya Star

1 centure.

Southern Sweden (Gothic people migration from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. Creation of Gothic Empire in Eastern Europe.) Nearcarpathian region, Asia Minor, Syria, Palestine (establishment of Christian Communi-ties.

Brake up with Judaism. Establishment of the Institution of a Church. Judeo 2. Renovation of the cult and world outlook. Talmud appear-ance.), Abissinia. ( 1, page 414)

( here and later on is given in abbreviated form)

- a supernova star discovered in 185 A. D. in the Centaur constellation. Within several weeks it was brighter than everything in the sky, except the Sun and the Moon. By July 186 it disappeared.

- Gumilev L. N. told nothing about the presence of ethnogenesis explosion in this period and later on till 500 year.

- in 393 A. D. a star in the Scorpion constellation flashes. Its brightness reaches the Sirius brightness; and it was visual within 8 months.

6 centure.

Central Arabia (unification of Arabian Peninsula. Change of religion. Islam.). Inda Valley (Complication of Caste System. Creation of religious philosophy of Vedanta. Triple monotheism: Brama, Shiva, Vishnu.). Tibet, Northern China, Korea (Unification of Korea under the power of Silla. Learning of Confucianian moral, intensive spreading of Buddhism.). Japan (Yamato. Building of central State with the head of a Monarch. Ac-ceptance of Confucianian moral as a state ethics. Wide spreading of Bud-dhism). ( 1, page 415)

- a supernova star noticed in 668 A. D.

8 centure.

Spain (the beginning of Reconquista (sp.). Establishment of the fol-lowing Kingdoms: Austria, Navarra, Leon, county of Portugal). France (Francs.). Germany (Collapse of the Empire of Karl the Great. Repulse of Vikings, Arabs, Hungarians and Slavs. Disintegration of Christianity and its division into Orthodox and Papistical branches. Denmark, Norway (the beginning of Vikings movement. Appearance of poetry and runic written language.)
( 1 page 415)

*- a supernova star noticed in 872 A. D..

- a supernova star noticed in 902 A. D...

- a supernova star noticed on the 3rd of May 1006 A. D. in the Wolf Constellation. According to some contemporary estimations its brightness at its maximum point was approximately 1/10 of the brightness of the full Moon.

- a supernova star of the 4th of July in the Taurus constellation. An absolute stellar magnitude 13. Since the year of 1054 A.D. the remnants from the star after an explosion are identified with Crab-like Nebula.


11 centure.

Mongolia (Mongols. Appearance of people of long will. Unification of tribes into people-army. Law appearance Yasa and written language. Ulus enlargement from the Yellow Sea to the Black Sea). Chgurchgeny. (Manchuria. Establishment of the Republic Tsin of half-chinese type. Ag-gression to the South. Conquering of Northern China).
( 1, page 415)

* - a supernova noticed in 1181 in the Cassiopeia constellation.


13 centure.

Lithuania (establishment of strong Princely Authority. Acceptance of Christianity). Rus (Velicorussians. Disappearance of Ancient Rus, con-quered by Lithuanians. Growing of Moscow Principality. Increasing of working estate. Wide metization of Slovenian, Turkic and Ugorish people of Eastern Europe). Asia Minor (turks-osmans. Sultanate of military type. Ottomanish Porta. Conquering of the Balkans, Front Asia and Northern Africa up to Morocco). Ethiopia. (1, page 415)

Analysis of the above-mentioned information at the scheme shows that there is a tendency to arrange the observations of supernova star ex-plosions and the dates of passionary drives into groups for the period of the last two thousand years. Chronological lasting of one group is 150-200 years. In every Group a supernova star flash precedes ethnogenesis ex-plosion.
Disputable stars (*
1 Gipparh 134 B. C.) and (* 2- the Vifliem Star) received their own ethnogenesis explosion in the 1st centure. Evidently, one of them was already a supernova star.
No passionary drive preceded supernova star explosion of the year 185 (
* 3). It can be explained in the following way:
- process of ethnogenesis was interrupted by neighboring ethnoses.
- ethnogenesis was not investigated due to lack of written proofs.
- according to its parameters it not a supernova star, but a nova one.
- the date of a supernova star was indicated with an error.

Ethnogenesis explosion in 6, 8, 13 centuries correspond to supernova stars of 393 A. D. (* 4), 668 A. D. (* 5), 1184 A. D. (* 10).
Anomalously high chronological density of supernova stars in 9-11 centuries (* 6,7,8,9) gives rise to some doubts concerning the truth of their dating. Probably, it was one and the same star, which appearance is reflected in different sources, and the subsequent irregular translation caused some errors in dates and duplicating of that phenomenon.
Is a supposition on a correlation between supernova stars and eth-nogenesis is correct than we can come to a conclusion that there should be not less than five supernova stars for the period from 150 B. C. till 1200 A.D..
It is a lower bound. But it is much more difficult to define the upper bound. Supposedly, it makes up seven. Star flashes* 2, 6, 7 are indicated as the most doubtful in different sources. These conclusions are considered by us to be preliminary, working.
One can say so far that supposition on a correlation between super-nova stars and ethnogenesis has some ground.
In course of further investigation we are intended to check the circum-stances of all Central Solar Eclipses from 300 B. C. till 1700 A. D. We are interested in Eclipses with trajectories of the Moon shadow, coinciding with ethnogenesis explosion axes.

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